Thanks for the immunization, Hillary

Numerically the Democratic primary is over. I’ll spare you the minutia, but Hillary can’t catch up to Obama in delegates, which, unless we’re going to toss out the rules, is the only metric that counts.

Unlike some other rabid Obama supporters (yes, I’m talking about you, Keith), I’m not calling for Hillary to get out of the race. The ‘for the good of the party’ logic doesn’t sit with me. What’s better for the Democrats than squeezing John McCain out of every news cycle?

Then there’s the thinking that bruising the nominee will somehow weaken his general election candidacy. I say that Rev Wright couldn’t come at a better time for Obama. Considering he can’t lose the primary numerically, it’s best to face the heat over that matter now rather than in the general election. Since the issue has been aired out already, if it comes up in the general, it will be largely irrelevant.

In fact, it seems Hillary’s attacks are just immunizing Obama for his general election match-up with McCain.

While Hillary shouldn’t drop out, she must be careful if she wants a future in politics. The course ahead for her (and perhaps the Democrats) is a treacherous one. To win the nomination (which is, again, numerically impossible) she’ll need a devastating, paradigm shifting event(s). I’m sure she thought Rev Wright and Obama’s remarks on rural America were a couple of these types of events.

Her inability to capitalize on these issues though leads me to believe that it’s totally over sans a real scorched earth policy. She can make the case to super-delegates that she’s more electable. But, if he has the most pledged delegates, that’s the way the super-delegates are going to fall. I’m sure they realize that deciding this race in an extra-democratic fashion — taking it away from a black man — would unleash something in between chaos and anarchy in the streets.

So it’s over, Hillary. But, thanks for ‘vetting’ Obama.

As a Brit, I follow US elections with a certain degree of bemusement and befuddlement. But can I ask one thing, you say the rule book would need to be thrown out in order for her to win.

Now, I thought the rule book said that super delegates can exercise their own judgement in deciding who to nominate. I get confused on this, the rules seem pretty clear, but Obama supporters seem to say it would be undemocratic. Now that might be the case, but if it is, what is the point of the super delegate?

I met with one person recently who wasn’t a super-delegate, but worked in an adjoining office to one. This person said that super-delegates were “responsible adults” whereas regular voters were “children.” That should give you some idea to the supposed purpose of these delegates: to over-rule the people in case the party hacks don’t like the result.

Also, my vote, together with thousands of like-minded votes, comprise one pledged delegate. These super-delegates cast a vote worth thousands of my votes.

While they are undemocratic in nearly every respect, super-delegates are real and will play a crucial role in this primary. You’re right, Tim, they are able to exercise their own judgment and vote whichever way they see fit.

The current delegate count puts Obama with 1725 delegates and Clinton with 1592. There are 408 pledged delegates and 304 super-delegates remaining.

Obama is going to wipe Clinton out in North Carolina and it will be relatively close in every other state in Obama’s favor. So let’s suppose the current delegate gap of 133 stays roughly the same, perhaps increasing a little bit.

For Hillary to win, she would need over half of the remaining super-delegates to go with her. I don’t see that as possible minus a devastating skeleton coming out of Obama’s closet.

These super-delegates, while they could potentially pull the trigger on Clinton, in all likelihood, won’t do it. A lot of them have said that the person with the most pledged delegates — Obama — should win. There’s also the chaos factor, the fact that all the hype around this race would evaporate if Clinton was the nominee, and the reprisals in the form of election losses for the super-delegates who choose to overturn the people’s vote.