Report says China’s military limited but growing

Washington’s collective worry over China should be postponed judging from the outcome of a new Pentagon report. Military Power of the People’s Republic of China concluded that “China will take until the end of this decade or longer to produce a modern force capable of defeating a moderate-size adversary. China will not be able to project and sustain small military units far beyond China before 2015, and will not be able to project and sustain large forces in combat operations far from China until well into the following decade.” So, for the time being, China is not a threat, at least to the US.

China has increased military spending 11% each year since 1996 and is now the largest military spender in Asia, but I doubt that trend is sustainable for Beijing. As China’s population continues to age, social spending is likely to cut into the military budget. Thus for China to attain solid military prowess in 15-25 years, as projected by the Pentagon, they would have to defy defense budget cuts in the face social need — an unlikely proposition in any country.