Best shot at a free Tibet [updatedX2]

Unrest in Tibet is being met with a show of force from Beijing. Still, if Tibet ever wants to be free, this is its best and perhaps last chance. Here’s why:

• Beijing is systemically repopulating Tibet with ethnic Han Chinese. In the past thirteen years, the population of Tibetans has decreased by 15% while the population of Han Chinese has doubled. If this trend is to continue, the Tibetan heritage, culture, and claim will be silenced within twenty years.
• Nation-state sovereignty achieved some sort of precedent with the independence of Kosovo. Tibet could capitalize on this movement, although its claim still requires the backing of a foreign power to be legitimate…
• With the Olympics approaching, China’s domestic conditions will be under increased scrutiny. Protest now forces China to undertake a possibly heavy-handed response, affording massive amounts of international sympathy to the Tibetan cause.
• Even if the initial response is porportional, the longer unrest continues the closer it gets to the Olympics. Beijing will not allow protests in Tibet to dominate the international news cycles leading into the Opening Ceremonies. This would eventually force a heavy-handed crackdown.

Beijing cannot capitulate on Tibetan sovereignty. Otherwise its claim to Taiwan and its effort to homogenize the Chinese population will loose all credibility. Beijing must prevent this precedent while being wary that its actions are under the microscope. Tibet’s goal should be to prolong this unrest and force Beijing to pick between varnish and control. The world is watching.

Update @ 15:03:

+ FreeTibet.org has published pictures of dead protesters.

+ Despite China’s best efforts, more pictures and videos of riots are now online. Also, the Chinese government has been censoring domestic broadcasts of CNN and BBC reports.

Update 3.18 @ 16:00:

+ France urges EU to mull boycotting Olympic Opening Ceremonies