Doomsday Clock

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock conveys how close humanity is to catastrophic destruction–the figurative midnight–and monitors the means humankind could use to obliterate itself. First and foremost, these include nuclear weapons, but they also encompass climate-changing technologies and new developments in the life sciences and nanotechnology that could inflict irrevocable harm.

Because of the unraveling situation in a nuclear armed Pakistan I thought I would share with you that the Board of Atomic Scientists’ believe we are 5 minutes from the proverbial midnight. Here’s their rationale:

IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
2007 — The world stands at the brink of a second nuclear age. The United States and Russia remain ready to stage a nuclear attack within minutes, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, and many in the international community worry that Iran plans to acquire the Bomb. Climate change also presents a dire challenge to humanity. Damage to ecosystems is already taking place; flooding, destructive storms, increased drought, and polar ice melt are causing loss of life and property.

Let me add to their reasoning: the Musharraf regime in Pakistan is at best troubled, if not in outright danger of being cut down. Nobody can afford to see a power vacuum in that country, let alone the rise of an Islamic government. After a tumultuous year, these fates are now within sight. That is a terribly unsettling reality for a country in a region which seems incapable of stability.

Instability and nuclear weapons should never be together. It’s the same principle as why you don’t let kids play with guns - they are unpredictable. I can trust France with a nuke because tomorrow I can wake up and be almost certain that Germany won’t be under a mushroom cloud. The same parallel cannot be drawn for Pakistan - especially a Pakistan ruled by people who demonstrably see killing as a means of achieving political goals.

Benazir Bhutto’s murder may not be enough for us to move to 4 minutes. But, with Pakistan teetering on the verge of civility that clock may not hold for much longer.

By some quirk of fate Russia has been able to hold onto its nuclear weapons.
I don’t believe I can say the same thing about Pakistani nuclear weapons. In a part of the world where the dominant political force is the tribe and not the nation, it is very possible for one of these tribes, especially should they seize control of a nation’s military, to sell their weaponry. For political units such as Taliban and al-Qaida, the use of weapons grade Uranium or Plutonium for energy is not feasible. Nor is, necessarily, their use in some abstract war. Rather, I fear that Pakistan might “misplace” one. Such a blunder could cost the proverbial three minutes.
We may be much closer to midnight then originally feared.. perhaps two minutes to midnight. To quote a popular rock band of the 70s and 80s: “Kill for gain, or shoot to maim.. We don’t need a reason.”